Mortgage Rate Overview in Mid-2025
Mortgage rates remain one of the most important indicators for anyone looking to buy, sell, or refinance a home in North Carolina. As we head into the final months of 2025, understanding where rates are going can help buyers make informed decisions. LBC Capital provides insight into national forecasts and local trends to help you navigate the market with confidence.
Where Rates Stand Now
As of August 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in North Carolina sits at approximately 6.88%. That’s slightly lower than the national average, which hovers around 6.91%. These figures are a significant increase compared to the historically low rates of 2020 and 2021 but reflect greater stability than the rate spikes seen in 2023 and early 2024.
LBC Capital has observed that North Carolina’s mortgage market is aligning more closely with national trends, although local factors such as job growth, housing supply, and regional demand still cause minor deviations. Despite higher rates, activity continues, especially as buyers adjust expectations and seek smarter financing solutions.
Regional Variations Within the State
Cities like Raleigh, Charlotte, and Durham are showing more resilience, thanks to continued population growth and economic development. Areas with slower growth may see more price stabilization and slightly more flexibility in rates offered by lenders.
National Forecasts and Predictions for Late 2025
What Experts Are Saying
Nationally, economists and housing market analysts are cautiously optimistic that rates will moderate by the end of the year. Multiple forecasts offer slightly different outlooks, but most agree that rates will not return to pandemic-era lows anytime soon.
Fannie Mae predicts that the average 30-year mortgage rate could fall to around 6.2% by Q4 2025. The Mortgage Bankers Association anticipates a more conservative 6.7%. The National Association of Realtors supports this view, also forecasting a year-end rate of around 6.7%, with a gradual drop into the low 6% range in 2026.
Other projections, such as from ResiClub and LongForecast, suggest a Q4 average of around 6.34%, with month-end rates in December near 6.35%. Tomo Mortgage presents one of the most cautious estimates, suggesting that rates may hover close to 6.875% for the rest of 2025.
What’s Behind These Forecasts?
Several key factors are driving these projections. The Federal Reserve has taken a measured approach to interest rate adjustments, opting for caution as inflation remains above its 2% target. Though some analysts hoped for multiple rate cuts in 2025, inflation concerns and global trade pressures have delayed aggressive action.
Uncertainty surrounding economic growth, employment numbers, and international factors—such as tariffs and global conflicts—also play a role in holding rates higher than anticipated. Mortgage rates tend to track the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds, and as long as those yields remain elevated, mortgage rates will follow.
Local Factors Affecting North Carolina’s Market
Supply and Demand Dynamics
In North Carolina, the housing market is showing signs of balance. Inventory levels are up nearly 21% compared to last year, giving buyers more options. At the same time, the median home price has risen just 1.3% year-over-year. This modest appreciation signals a move toward a healthier and more sustainable housing environment.
New residential construction is also picking up, with the Carolinas expected to see a 3.5% increase in single-family home starts by the end of the year. That equates to approximately 4,000 new homes, which will help ease demand pressures and improve affordability over time.
Market Behavior of Homebuyers
LBC Capital has seen many North Carolina buyers adjusting their strategies. Rather than delaying purchases, more buyers are opting for adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), rate buydowns, or locking in rates now with the plan to refinance in 2026 if rates fall. This flexibility has allowed activity to remain steady even as borrowing costs remain elevated.
What to Expect for the Remainder of 2025
Month-by-Month Rate Expectations
LongForecast provides a detailed breakdown of monthly projections, with October 2025 expected to average around 6.45%. November may see a small dip to 6.4%, and December could close out the year around 6.35%. While small, these decreases may offer new opportunities for borrowers.
It’s unlikely that rates will drop below 6% in 2025. Most experts agree that any meaningful decline will occur in 2026, assuming inflation stabilizes and economic conditions support a looser monetary policy. That said, even small rate improvements can make a noticeable difference in monthly payments and loan eligibility.
How This Impacts Homebuyers and Homeowners
For buyers, a potential reduction of even half a percent could save hundreds of dollars per month on mortgage payments. On a $400,000 home with 20% down, a 6.3% rate instead of 6.8% could reduce monthly payments by over $100. For homeowners considering refinancing, tracking rate trends in the fourth quarter could offer opportunities to improve loan terms or access equity at a better rate.
How LBC Capital Helps You Navigate Mortgage Rate Trends
Personalized Mortgage Planning
LBC Capital doesn’t believe in one-size-fits-all solutions. We understand that every borrower has unique needs and goals. Whether you’re a first-time buyer in Asheville or an investor in the Charlotte metro, we build strategies around your timing, budget, and long-term plans.
Our mortgage experts provide insights based on both national trends and North Carolina-specific data. We monitor rate movements daily, giving you real-time information to make the best financial decision.
Access to Competitive Rates and Programs
With access to a broad range of lenders and loan products, LBC Capital ensures you have options. From conventional fixed-rate mortgages to ARMs, FHA loans, VA loans, and jumbo options, we tailor the process to your financial profile. When rates fluctuate, we help you lock in at the right time—or explore buydown strategies to keep payments manageable.
We also offer pre-approval tools and rate tracking services that help you act quickly when the market shifts in your favor.
Final Rate Forecast Summary
To summarize what to expect for the remainder of 2025:
- Fannie Mae projects mortgage rates to fall to around 6.2%
- MBA and NAR forecast year-end rates near 6.7%
- ResiClub predicts an average of 6.34% for Q4
- LongForecast sees December rates at 6.35%
- Tomo Mortgage offers a more cautious outlook at 6.875%
Most predictions suggest mortgage rates in North Carolina will range between 6.3% and 6.8% through the end of 2025. While rates may not fall significantly, small shifts can create meaningful opportunities.
Choose LBC Capital for Guidance and Strategy
Navigating mortgage rates requires more than watching the headlines. You need a partner who understands the market and puts your goals first. LBC Capital provides the guidance, tools, and strategies to help you secure the best possible rate—no matter what the rest of 2025 brings.
Whether you’re buying a home, refinancing, or just starting to explore your options, connect with LBC Capital for expert advice tailored to North Carolina’s dynamic housing market.